Omanghana
Western Tigray remains one of the most volatile areas in the Horn of Africa as unresolved territorial claims, prolonged displacement and shifting regional alliances threaten Ethiopia’s fragile post-war settlement.
The disputed territory, which includes the fertile areas of Welkait, Tegede and Setit-Humera along Ethiopia’s border with Sudan, was administered as part of the Tigray region before the war that erupted in November 2020.
Amhara forces and allied militias seized control of the area during the conflict, arguing that the land was historically part of Amhara and had been incorporated into Tigray under the country’s former political order. Tigrayan authorities reject that position and demand the restoration of the pre-war regional boundary.
The Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement, signed by the Ethiopian federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front in November 2022, ended large-scale fighting but did not settle the territorial dispute.
Ethiopia’s government subsequently announced that the area’s final status would be determined through a referendum after displaced residents had returned and federal forces had assumed responsibility for security. No timetable was provided, and significant progress towards holding the vote has yet to be reported.
Hundreds of thousands of ethnic Tigrayans who fled or were expelled from the territory have remained unable to return safely. Human rights organisations have raised concerns about security, property restitution, administrative control and the conditions under which any return would take place.
The unresolved displacement crisis has become one of the biggest obstacles to fully implementing the Pretoria agreement. Many displaced people continue to live in camps or temporary settlements with limited access to food, healthcare and other essential services.
Tigray’s wider political environment has also deteriorated. Divisions between the TPLF and officials associated with the federally established interim administration have weakened regional governance and complicated discussions over disarmament, reconstruction and security integration.
In April 2026, the TPLF announced that it was restoring Tigray’s pre-war governing structure, accusing the federal administration of violating the peace agreement. Critics described the move as a rejection of the political arrangement created after Pretoria and warned that it could push northern Ethiopia towards renewed conflict.
Military tensions have periodically resurfaced near disputed boundaries and strategic routes. Reports of armed movements and clashes close to Sudan have increased fears that local confrontations could widen into another conflict involving federal troops, Tigrayan forces and Amhara armed groups.
Sudan’s civil war has added another layer of uncertainty. The long and porous frontier has become vulnerable to weapons trafficking, the movement of armed groups and competition over cross-border supply routes.
Regional analysts have warned that rival governments and armed actors could use northern Ethiopia’s unresolved disputes to advance their own interests. The increasingly complex relationships among Addis Ababa, Asmara, Sudanese factions and Tigrayan political actors have heightened fears of proxy involvement.
International partners, including the United States and European Union, have repeatedly called for strict adherence to the Pretoria agreement. The EU has urged the parties to reduce tensions, engage in dialogue and restore full implementation of the peace framework.
A sustainable settlement will require agreement on territorial administration, the withdrawal or integration of armed forces, the restoration of civilian government and conditions that allow displaced communities to return voluntarily and safely.
Without progress on those issues, Western Tigray is likely to remain a heavily militarised centre of political tension capable of destabilising Ethiopia and drawing the wider Horn of Africa into another regional crisis.
Source: Omanghana
