Tanzania Moves to Outmaneuver Kenya, Courting Dangote for Major Refinery Deal

Tanzania President and Dangote

Samia Suluhu Hassan held a high-level meeting with Nigerian billionaire industrialist Aliko Dangote at the State House in Dar es Salaam on May 16, 2026, as Tanzania intensifies efforts to secure a proposed multibillion-dollar regional oil refinery project for its coastline.

The planned refinery, estimated to cost between $15 billion and $17 billion, is modeled after Dangote’s massive 650,000-barrel-per-day refinery in Lagos. The project is designed to reduce East Africa’s heavy dependence on imported refined petroleum products from the Middle East at a time when Red Sea shipping disruptions continue to affect global energy supply chains.

The meeting comes amid growing regional competition between Tanzania and Kenya over the location of the strategic energy hub.

The dispute began on April 23, 2026, when Kenyan President William Ruto announced a tentative regional agreement to establish the refinery at the Port of Tanga. The announcement followed a summit involving Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni and Dangote, although Tanzanian officials were reportedly not directly involved in the discussions despite the proposed site being located within Tanzania.

Tensions escalated further in early May when President Samia publicly criticized the process, arguing that Tanzania had not been properly consulted regarding a major foreign-backed infrastructure project planned along its own coastline.

Days later, Dangote indicated in an interview with the Financial Times that he was increasingly favoring Mombasa in Kenya over Tanga as the preferred refinery location. He cited Mombasa’s natural deep-water harbor, stronger logistics infrastructure, and larger domestic fuel consumption market as key advantages.

In response, President Samia personally stepped into negotiations by hosting Dangote in Dar es Salaam in what analysts describe as a diplomatic effort to restore confidence in Tanzania’s bid. During the talks, Tanzania reportedly highlighted Dangote’s existing investments in the country, including his major cement operations in Mtwara, while emphasizing Tanzania’s strategic geographic advantages for the refinery project.

The proposed refinery has become one of East Africa’s most strategically significant infrastructure contests, with both Kenya and Tanzania presenting competing advantages. Kenya’s Mombasa port offers a well-established deep-water harbor capable of handling large crude oil tankers and serving East Africa’s largest fuel-consuming economy. Tanzania’s Tanga, however, sits near the planned terminus of the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), which is expected to transport crude oil from Uganda’s Hoima oil fields directly to the Tanzanian coast.

Analysts say the final decision will carry major geopolitical and economic implications for the region. The host nation would likely gain significant influence over refined fuel distribution networks serving Uganda, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Ethiopia.

Although technical evaluations are said to currently favor Kenya, Dangote has emphasized that political consensus among regional leaders will ultimately determine the project’s future. Reflecting that position, the businessman reportedly stated, “Whatever President Ruto and regional leaders say is what I’ll do.”

 

 

 

Source: Omanghana


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